I’ve said all year it feels like the 49ers year and I’m sticking to that.

Almost every group with this collection of talent, that’s been at it for multiple years, has at least found a way to break through. It’s very rare where that hasn’t been the case.

And sure, you can say they just got past the Packers and spotted the Lions a 17-point lead. But they still found a way to win. Having to win in the fashion they’ve won probably hasn’t been the worst thing for a team that captured the NFC’s top seed with relative ease. You need to win rock fights this time of year and the Niners have come out on top with a Packers team that had nothing to lose and a Lions team built to win in the playoffs, with a swagger we’re not used to seeing from Detroit.

What exactly have the Chiefs done to get here that has been remarkable? In the wild card round, they beat the Dolphins in the middle of an arctic blast. In the divisional round, they beat the Bills, in the playoffs. Nothing else needed to explain that. They won the conference championship game against a Ravens team that seemed to have zero grasp of what was going on.

Don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes, they say. I say bet against this 49ers team at full strength at your own peril. 

All a long-winded way of saying the 49ers win this 23-16.

Some other Super Bowl thoughts: 

*My favorite bet remains the game going to overtime. The fact this game has only gone to overtime once in 57 years blows my mind, especially with how close the games have been over the last 20 years or so. Eventually that trend will turn and we’ll see overtime every year. It’s the law of averages.

*It pains me to say this as a man who loves dome overs, but the 47.5 over/under is an easy under. This game feels like a run-the-ball, keep-the-other-offense-off-the-field type of chest match. Think this game plays in the upper teens/lower 20s.

*I don’t know where the Super Bowl MVP goes if the 49ers win (gut feeling says they’ll just give it to Purdy) but I see a clear favorite on the Chiefs side – Travis Kelce. If Kansas City wins it won’t be without Kelce being a factor and I think if he puts up any type of yards, much less scores a touchdown or two, he puts himself in a good position to get it. All part of the story.

*If you’re having a bad week, just imagine being a Raiders fan – they have to watch their longtime geographical rival against what is probably their most hated current rival. On their home turf, no less. Hate to see things like that.

*You know what the worst part of this Super Bowl being in Vegas for the first time? You don’t get to go back through past years the Super Bowl has been hosted at that site and draw weird parallels with that game that have nothing to do with anything but yet everything to do with everything – which, sad as it may sound, is one of my favorite things to do. But that won’t stop me from getting creative – the last time a Super Bowl has been held at an AFC-exclusive stadium (i.e. excluding SoFi or MetLife)? February 2020 in Miami, when the Chiefs beat the 49ers. 

*No team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots went back-to-back 20 years ago, which you already knew. Bet you didn’t know it’s been 44 years since a player won back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs, when Terry Bradshaw led the Steelers to the third and fourth titles in a six-year stretch.

*49ers go into the game seven points shy of the Patriots for all-time points in the Super Bowl (246-239). Their plus-85 point differential in the Super Bowl is four behind the Cowboys for the all-time lead.

*One last (maybe unpopular) thought – we need more football on Super Sunday. If you do this day right it’s basically a second Thanksgiving. The NFL needs to give us a game to have on in the background during the afternoon, preferably between two bad teams. And this is where I tell you we need a First Overall Pick Bowl. Worst record in the league against the winner of a matchup between the second and third-worst records in the league, which will have taken place on Saturday night of conference championship weekend. Imagine the Patriots and Panthers playing for the first pick in a rematch of Super Bowl 38. You know you want it.

We’re down to four teams. Great because it means we’re in the middle of what I think are the most exciting two weeks on the football calendar, the Divisional and Conference rounds of the NFL playoffs but not so great because football is about to leave our lives for six months.

So while we’re waiting for Sunday to come (Monday to Friday feels like about eight days this time of year), let’s rank the teams we want to see win, most to least.

1. Lions: This one’s a slam dunk. Much like the Bengals two years ago, right? A long-suffering fan base that has waited decades for a team to get behind, ends a long playoff losing streak and now are knocking on the door of the Super Bowl. It’s a group led by top-end talent that plays as if they’re trying to hold onto a roster spot. There’s no reason they can’t win it all, either. If Jared Goff plays mistake-free, they can beat the 49ers and whichever team comes out of the AFC.

2. 49ers: Yes, they have five Super Bowls but haven’t won one since the 1994 season. The roster is loaded but it’s certainly not an unlikable group. Brock Purdy going from Mr. Irrelevant to Super Bowl-winning QB in under two years would be one of the great stories we’ve seen in the NFL.

3. Ravens: They’ve won two Super Bowls since the turn of the century and I wanted them to lose both times. Something about the Ravens that just makes you not want to see them win. With all that being said, Lamar Jackson is awesome.

4. Chiefs: If Patrick Mahomes wins this year, it’ll be his third and the GOAT talk will start growing louder – when he’ll still have less than half the number of rings as Tom Brady. And if you think that’s idiotic, we’re going to start approaching the Reid vs Belichick talk I’ve been warning all of you about eventually, too. Sorry, Swifties.

Picks for Sunday: 

49ers over Lions: Yes, Deebo Samuel is banged up, which is worrisome until you realize there’s like six other weapons in that offense. George Kittle would be the focal point of most offenses and you almost forget he exists sometimes in this one, that’s how loaded they are. And they just as good defensively – every time I watch them I find myself saying ‘oh right, they traded for Chase Young.’ They did just survive the Packers last week but sometimes you just need to survive this time of year. Lions will give them a game but the Niners advance to the Super Bowl.

Ravens over Chiefs: I think the Ravens will be the team that wins the Super Bowl. They’ve been the best team in the AFC all season and they’re playing their best ball right now. When you look at their roster, they’re as loaded as the 49ers are, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs had that win handed to them by the Bills last week. 

The only thing I can predict with full confidence about this weekend’s Divisional Round is that it won’t be more predictable than last weekend’s Wild Card Round (don’t give me this Super Wild Card nonsense, there was nothing super about it).

Blowouts, duds, the Cowboys stepping on a rake, the Dolphins laying an egg in a cold weather game, Joe Flacco turning into a pumpkin and the Browns in general just not having nice things. Who could’ve seen all that coming?

Now we’re onto the Divisional Round and the grim reality that we have just seven football games for us to enjoy between now and August. All we need is a presidential-style debate between Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh on why they should be the next head coach of the Falcons and we’d be complete.

Ravens over Texans: Still conflicted on the 9.5-point spread. It’s a lot of points with a Texans team I can see hanging around with a Ravens team that had a tendency to let teams hang around during the regular season. Either way, I still say the Ravens are the class of the AFC and will be one of the two teams in Las Vegas next month.

49ers over Packers: When at full strength this season, the Niners have rolled against inferior opponents. As great as the Packers have played for two months now, they’ll still be an inferior opponent when they go into Santa Clara this weekend. And I just don’t see the Packers defense stopping Christian McCaffrey. 

Lions over Buccaneers: The Lions win over the Rams last weekend, Detroit’s first playoff win in 32 years, and the ensuing scenes at Ford Field was far and away the highlight of last weekend. More importantly, it was a tough, gritty win against an experienced Rams team. The Bucs are coming off a dominant win on Monday, but that game had more to do with how bad the Eagles were than anything the Bucs did.

Chiefs over Bills: Upset pick of the week, as far as Kansas City can actually be an underdog. I trust Reid and Mahomes more than I do Allen and McDermott. The already-banged up Bills suffered more injuries they didn’t need in their win over the Steelers on Monday.

There’s so many records that will never be broken that sometimes you wonder what records there actually are that will be broken.

Something that you can count on never being topped is these last 24 years in New England under the guidance of Bill Belichick. The numbers: 266 regular season wins, 30 playoff wins, 18 playoff appearances, 17 division titles (including 11 straight at one point), nine Super Bowl appearances and six Super Bowl titles. A run no Patriots fan ever dreamt of because you simply couldn’t dream of it – the thought of a run like that, in any era of NFL history much less this one, would sound preposterous. 

In New England, Belichick won championships the way his now-retired buddy Nick Saban did while assembling a run of dominance that spanned over a generation in a place that had no real history of success the way Bobby Bowden did.

It was September 23, 2001, when Tom Brady replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe in a game that was a 10-3 loss to the Jets and kicked Belichick’s record as Patriots head coach to 5-13 that turned out to kick off this run. People who were elementary schoolers on that day are now established in the working world. People who were in high school on that day have kids who are now in high school. That’s how long this has spanned. 

If you’re a Patriots fan under the age of 30, you never experienced true losing football until this year. The idea of the Pats winning four games was never a thought. That was something the Browns, Jets and Lions did.

Now we’re here in 2024, the Browns and Lions are in the playoffs and the Jets probably would be too if Aaron Rodgers didn’t rip his Achilles up on the first offensive drive of the season. And reality has hit that everything ends.

The time has come for it to end, too. The football operation has been on a clear downward slope since Tom Brady left nearly four years ago – and honestly has probably been trending down longer than that. The 2018 Super Bowl run made us all forget how uncharacteristically bad the Patriots looked in the second half of that regular season. Robert Kraft is too competent an owner to allow the franchise to fall apart for the sake of Belichick chasing Don Shula’s wins record. 

And keeping Belichick around with less personnel power was never a viable option. It was status quo or clean break. 

There’s no indication that Belichick is close to done. He’ll have his pick of where he wants to go and there’ll be plenty of owners lined up to make their pitch.

Whatever happens, nothing will take away from what he’s accomplished over the past nearly-quarter century.

Time now to talk playoffs. Third time in four years the Patriots aren’t in it. If you didn’t ask if this is the first time the Patriots missed three times in four years, congratulations you’re old.

Browns over Texans: It wouldn’t be Wild Card Weekend – sorry, Super Wild Card Weekend – without Browns-Texans as the late afternoon Saturday slot. The Brock Osweiler Bowl. How did we get so lucky? In all seriousness though I think this could be a really good game. Siding with experience and taking Cleveland.

Chiefs over Dolphins: Kansas City is going to be an arctic hellscape and the Dolphins are one of the teams playing in this game. Need I say more?

Bills over Steelers: I will say I see some upset potential in this one. I still say the Bills are a bit vulnerable and the Steelers have not only started getting it done offensively, but playing great on that side of things to boot the last few weeks. At the same time I still think this Steelers team is a lot like the Patriots pre-2023 – it’s trending downward, it just needs to smack us all in the face for us to realize it.

Packers over Cowboys: Upset pick of the weekend. Packers finished the year 6-2 and Jordan Love looks great. This Cowboys team has had a habit all year of looking like worldbeaters until they play someone. I don’t care how good they were at home in the regular season – it’s the playoffs, all that goes out the window.

Lions over Rams: Is this a Jared Goff revenge game or a Matthew Stafford revenge game? Has the Detroit football fan’s time finally come or is this the comedown from the high of seeing Michigan win the national title? I’m just gonna take the home team.

Buccaneers over Eagles: On what planet are the Bucs underdogs in this game? Is there something I don’t know? Have the oddsmakers watched the Eagles since Thanksgiving?

It’s the final week of the regular season and we’re celebrating another regular season with a round of superlatives. 

Best QB on a Super Bowl contender player of the year: Because that’s what the MVP Is, right? 

And of course that player is Lamar Jackson, who has pulled away from the field in the MVP race in the final weeks of the season the same way Patrick Mahomes did last season.

MVP if it wasn’t a QB award player of the year: Is that what the Offensive Player of the Year is? Maybe a little bit. But that player is Christian McCaffrey. He’s leading the league with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns – he has 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in 27 games since being traded to San Francisco from Carolina last season.

The team nobody wants to see team of the year: Buffalo Bills. Did you see what they did to the Cowboys? As in literally the same thing everyone has done to Dallas away from AT&T Stadium this season. Personally I’m not sold.

Team nobody is talking about team of the year. Los Angeles Rams. It’s almost as if we’ve all forgotten this team won the Super Bowl two years ago, right?

Imagine if they were at full strength team of the year: Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow went down and they’ve held their own without him.

Second-most tiring storyline of the year (because we all know what the first is): Aaron Rodgers. Did anyone actually think he was going to come back this season, especially after the Jets fell out of it? All the ayahuasca in the world won’t heal a ripped up Achilles in four months.

Guy you only realize if you watch the game player of the year: Trent Williams. Remember when he was out for a couple of weeks and Brock Purdy suddenly turned into Ken Dorsey circa 2004? 

Guy who gets overshadowed by Christian McCaffrey player of the year: Deebo Samuel. Its actually wild how these two complement each other. It’s like one is a reverse version of the other.

If you put him in Kyle Shanahan’s offense he’d be Brock Purdy player of the year: Mac Jones. I mean who can forget how he looked in 2021 with Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. The ‘what if the 49ers took Jones third overall instead of Trey Lance?’ is a potential debate topic come July when there’s nothing to talk about. 

Once he’s on a good team you’ll see how good he is player of the year: Justin Herbert. He has thrown for a lot of yards.

This year shows how good he is player of the year: Kirk Cousins. Vikings were on their way to a third straight win when Cousins went down. To think what could’ve been. Another twist into the ongoing Kirk Cousins debate.

Guy who demonstrates how critical it is to be a leader of men coach of the year: Antonio Pierce. Raiders have looked like a completely different team post-McDaniels firing – their 4-4 record not fully indicative of how they’ve looked. I’d say its a slam dunk the interim tag gets removed, but this is a team that just two years ago felt McDaniels was a better option than Rich Bisaccia after he took over following Jon Gruden’s sudden midseason firing and led them to one of their two playoff appearances in the last 21 seasons. 

Player we saw what he could do when he was healthy player of the year: Tua Tagovailoa. It was the question we all asked – and the result was 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions while completing a league-high 69.6 percent of his passes and 4,451 yards. Not too bad.

Future debate that’s too big to fail of the year: Brady vs Mahomes. It’s the next MJ vs LeBron. Buckle in.

Future debate that you should buy stock on now of the year: Belichick vs Reid. The Chiefs run is far from over despite what’s been a down season for their current standards – the Patriots had years like this during their run too – but watch that debate start to gain steam if they pull out another title or two. It’ll be as dumb as it sounds.

As for the Week 18 picks: 

Dolphins take AFC East crown: Here’s the thing – I’m not convinced either team is very good. The Bills have won four straight but the only reason they won the last two was because they played the Chargers and Patriots. Meanwhile the Dolphins got exposed last week in a 56-19 loss to the Ravens. I have a hard time picking against the Dolphins at home, where they’re 7-1 (and were up 27-13 with three minutes left in the only loss), after just getting smoked and playing a team that smoked them earlier in the season. Don’t hand this to the Bills just yet.

Texans win AFC South: C.J. Stroud returned last week, completing 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown in the Texans 26-3 win over the Titans. Texans beat the Colts while the Titans play spoiler at home against the Jaguars.

Buccaneers win NFC South: All they have to do is beat the 2-14 Panthers to clinch their fourth straight postseason appearance. The Saints, who have won three of four (including a 23-13 win over the Bucs last week), beat the Falcons at the Superdome but lose out on the playoff tiebreaker after the Seahawks beat the Cardinals.

Under hits in both AFC North games: Browns-Bengals set at 37.5 and Steelers-Ravens currently 35.5. No Joe Flacco for the Browns, no Lamar Jackson for the Ravens. Still like the Ravens to beat the Steelers to keep them out of the playoffs and seal the 14-3 season.

Patriots cover against Jets: It’s a short spread – Pats are currently laying 1.5 points – but if this is truly it for Bill Belichick in New England, there’s zero chance he’s going out with a loss to the Jets.

Lions and Cowboys both cover: Cowboys cover the 13.5-point spread against the Commanders – they’ve been smoking teams like Washington all year – and wrap up the second-seed. Lions take out their frustration from the ridiculous Taylor Decker call that cost them a win last week on the Vikings and get to 12 wins for just the second time in their history.

Bears upset Packers: The Bears finish off the year winners of five of seven. 

Rams over 49ers: Niners, locked into the first seed, sit Brock Purdy and most of the starters and the Rams go into the playoffs winners on a 7-1 run – their only loss over that stretch an overtime loss at the Ravens.

Giants over Eagles: Just feels like a necessary end to the regular season for the suddenly-reeling Eagles.

Chargers, Raiders win meaningless AFC West games: Doubt the Chiefs play anyone on Sunday while the Raiders give Pierce the 5-4 record as the interim.

It’s been three years and my brain still hasn’t fully adjusted to the 17-game NFL season.

It used to be so simple. Everyone played 16 games, the season went 17 weeks and the final week of the regular season was New Year’s Weekend. Now I have to think for a hot second when playing the ‘how many weeks are left in the regular season?’ game and sometimes even have to look up the NFL schedule to figure out whether one of the first couple weekends of January is actually the final weekend of the regular season or the first weekend of the playoffs.

Now, you might just read that and say I just can’t do basic math – which is entirely accurate, mind you, but the 16-game regular season just worked. There was a clear line between great (12-4 and up), good (10-6 and 11-5), mediocre (between 7-9 and 9-7), bad (6-10 and worse) and horrendous (4-12 and worse). Labelling a team by a record (i.e. this is probably a 10-6 team) just rolled off the tongue so much easier – try saying ‘this looks like a 10-7 team’ next summer when you’re talking preseason ball, it’s weird. Not to mention you could map out your team’s opponents five years from now with zero effort. And they took all that from us when the NFL went to 17 games.

I’m pro-16 game schedule but I’m certainly not pro-less football. So here’s the solution – rivalry games. Basically an annual game between two NFL teams each year playing with a trophy on the line – think college or high school rivalry. Basically rolling bowl games, rivalry games and an in-season tournament all into one. My vote is for Labor Day Weekend, right before the regular season kicks off. Get fans ready to go and give teams a chance to springboard themselves into the regular season with a win.

Here’s how the rivalries could shape out:

Giants-Jets, Chargers-Rams: Battle for the Stadium. Pretty self-explanatory.

Steelers-Eagles, Texans-Cowboys, Dolphins-Buccaneers, Browns-Bengals, Commanders-Ravens: In-state rivals. Again, self-explanatory.

Jaguars-Falcons: Basically World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, NFL edition.

49ers-Raiders: Bay Area showdown. Raiders identity will always be in Oakland, no matter where they play.

Bills-Lions: Unfortunately the Bills don’t have an in-state rival given that they’re the only team that plays in New York but I like the gritty, Rust Belt feel to this one.

Packers-Chiefs: Rematch of first Super Bowl. Also an amazing color matchup.

Bears-Cardinals: Chicago team vs former Chicago team.

Patriots-Colts: Brady-Manning Bowl.

Titans-Panthers: Feel like Nashville and Charlotte are pretty similar and in relatively close proximity to one another.

Vikings-Saints: Two dome teams. Potential to be high-scoring but also exciting defensive play. Just sounds fun.

Broncos-Seahawks: Winner gets Russell Wilson.

Now onto the picks: 

Browns cover -7.5 against Jets: Browns have quietly been awesome, having won six of eight.

Cowboys cover -6 at home against Lions, Ravens cover -3.5 against Dolphins: It’s a Show We’re Not Frauds game for the Cowboys. Baltimore clinches the top seed with a win.

Patriots cover at Bills: The Patriots are getting 13.5 points in this one – that’s a lot of points for a team that has suddenly won two of three and despite having a 4-11 record has been in most of the games they’ve played.

Bears over Falcons: Falcons are 2-5 away from Atlanta this season.

Titans cover at Texans, Raiders cover at Colts, Panthers cover at Jaguars: Three-way tie atop the AFC South at 8-7 between the Colts, Texans and Jaguars. Tennessee getting 4.5 points – Mike Vrabel’s team hasn’t lost by more than a field goal since November 19th. The Raiders are suddenly 7-8 – 4-3 under Antonio Pierce – following their 20-14 upset of the Chiefs on Christmas as they make their case to keep their interim coach around. The Jags, favored by 6.5, have lost four straight and could be without Trevor Lawrence this weekend (which actually might not be the worst thing after how he looked last weekend).

Rams cover -5.5 at Giants: Are the Rams a potential dark horse in the NFC?

49ers cover -12.5 at the Commanders, Eagles cover -10.5 against Cardinals: Get-right games for San Francisco and Philadelphia.

Buccaneers cover -2.5 against Saints: Bucs clinch NFC South with a win and Falcons loss and are suddenly pretty scary. Four straight wins and Baker Mayfield, who couldn’t stop throwing picks in training camp (not that any of that really matters, it doesn’t), has thrown just eight interceptions to 26 touchdowns this season, and hasn’t been picked off in three straight games.

Seahawks cover -3.5 against Steelers: Don’t see the Steelers repeating last week’s offensive performance. 

Bengals-Chiefs under-44.5: Remember when this was supposed to be a New Year’s Eve showdown with the No. 1 seed on the line?

Broncos cover -3.5 against Chargers: Jarrett Stidham getting start in place of the benched Russell Wilson. We all know how this story plays out.

Vikings over Packers: Vikings have lost four of five, but does it really feel that way? 

Only picks this week. Need to start Christmas shopping.

Rams cover -4.5 against Saints, Bengals cover -1.5 against Steelers: Game that suddenly has big stakes for both teams. I like the Rams, who have won four of five. Don’t know why the Steelers are only getting 1.5 points on Saturday.

Chargers cover against Bills: Chargers getting 12.5 points in Giff Smith’s debut. We all know about the coach bump. The Bills are this year’s ‘team nobody wants to play.’ Which is an oddly vulnerable position to be in – when was the last time the team branded the one nobody wanted to see in the playoffs actually won?

Colts beat the Falcons: Two teams going in the opposite direction. The Falcons have lost five of seven and slipped to 6-8 last week with their 9-7 loss to the Panthers (yes, those Panthers) while the Colts have won five of six. 

Panthers cover 4.5 against the Packers: Panthers got their second win of the season – their first under Chris Tabor – last week against the Falcons and have found themselves in close games of late – four of their last six games have been one possession.

Browns over Texans, Lions over Vikings: There’s something about this Browns team I absolutely love. Imagine if they were fully healthy, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Vikings won’t give the Lions and easy one but it won’t be enough to beat Detroit.

Commanders-Jets under-37.5: Absolutely nothing appealing about this game.

Titans upset Seahawks: Titans last loss in regulation was on November 19th.

Jaguars-Buccaneers over-43.5: Sneaky awesome game here. Love a good clash between two first overall picks (Trevor Lawrence vs Baker Mayfield).

Bears cover -4.5 against Cardinals: The Bears, who were up 10 going into the fourth quarter last week against the Browns before allowing 13 unanswered to lose, 20-17, are two fourth-quarter collapses away from being winners of five straight. Sure, it also explains why they’re 5-9, but that’s besides the point.

Dolphins over Cowboys: I feel like we’ve completely forgotten the Dolphins exist and that should scare all of us.

Patriots cover +6.5 at Broncos: Bill Belichick’s first win as Patriots head coach came in Denver, a 28-19 win back in October 2000. Could it be where he gets his last?

Chiefs cover -10 against Raiders: Should’ve saved points from last week game for the Raiders.

Giants-Eagles under-42.5: I just wanna know what the over/under is on references of Eagles fans booing Santa.

Ravens cover +5.5 at the 49ers: Could be the game of the year so far.

This could be unpopular, but I think I like NFL on Saturday more than I enjoy college football on Saturday. 

Could this be a novelty thing – we only get a handful of NFL Saturdays a year versus a dozen-plus college football Saturdays? There’s a chance of that being the case. Either way, there’s something about the standalone nature of the games – just being able to focus on one at a time versus a bunch of games going on a once (which is awesome too, don’t get me wrong) that’s just refreshing. There’s also the aspect of being able to skip a game if its meaningless and go about your Saturday with no fear of missing out.

Lucky for us, there’s no meaningless games in the three-game Saturday slate of Vikings-Bengals, Steelers-Colts and Broncos-Lions, all teams either in playoff position or knocking on the door. No, the first two don’t jump off the page, but there’s things at stake while Broncos-Lions has potential to be a really good one.

Either way, we’ve officially reached the NFL Saturday football part of the schedule. It’s beginning to feel real.

Onto the picks: 

Chargers over Raiders: Thursday night marks the night the world learns of the legend that is Easton Stick. One of the great hockey names for a player with no ties to hockey.

Take the QB game of the week – Vikings vs Bengals: The 15 minutes of Joshua Dobbs have come and passed. Now we’re in the 15 minutes of Jake Browning. Who dey.

QB who makes the last critical error loses game of the week – Broncos vs Lions: And I think it’s more likely that Russell Wilson is the one who makes that critical error and the Lions come out with a win. Detroit needs one after two losses in three games.

Steelers-Colts under-42.5: This is the Saturday matchup with the most dud potential. I’m not sure which way it’ll go – both teams have a habit of being wildly unpredictable. But I do think this game not getting out of the 30s is a very plausible scenario.

Packers cover against Buccaneers: Still like the way the Packers are playing. The loss to the Giants doesn’t alarm me as much as it probably should. Tommy DeVito happened.

Giants over Saints: The legend continues.

Falcons-Panthers under-34: These two teams played in Week 1, a 24-10 Falcons win. It feels like both teams are significantly worse since then.

Texans over Titans: C.J. Stroud’s status remains up in the air. If he can’t go, it’ll be either Davis Mills or Case Keenum under center – both capable QBs. 

Dolphins cover -8.5 against Jets: Dolphins have done a good job covering big spreads this year. And while last week’s collapse to the Titans, in which they were 8.5-point favorites, dropped them to 5-2 when favored by seven or more points, they were up 14 points with under three minutes to play. They cover that nine out of ten times.

Bears over Browns: Chicago is a late collapse against the Lions away from winning four straight.

Patriots cover at home against Chiefs: Pats are getting 8.5 points against a Kansas City team that hasn’t really looked like itself. Of New England’s 10 losses, just three have been by more than one possession.

Commanders-Rams over-50.5: Both these teams have found themselves in high-scoring games consistently throughout the season. A rarity in today’s NFL.

49ers cover 12.5 at Cardinals: Niners have won five straight and look like a buzzsaw. Hard not to see them going the distance if they stay healthy.

Bills over Cowboys: Another gotta-have-it game for Buffalo.

Jaguars cover at home against Ravens: Jags are getting 3.5 points on the back of two straight losses. Ravens have a tendency to let teams hang around – wouldn’t be surprised to see Jacksonville win this outright.

Eagles cover 3.5 at Seahawks: Lots of noise around Philly after two straight losses to the 49ers and Cowboys. Seahawks are not either of the teams. Eagles get right on MNF.

Feel like everything that’s needed to be said about Florida State and the CFP has been said – also, I’m tired of hearing about it. So I’m just getting right into the picks.

Patriots-Steelers under-30.5. The Patriots continue to find new ends to the Earth. The Pats have given up 46 points over their last four games and haven’t won a single one of them. That might be the most impressive feat they’ve accomplished under Belichick. I mean, someone wins the Super Bowl every year.

Ravens cover at home against the Rams. Rams have won three straight against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Browns. None of those teams are the Ravens, one of the clear candidates to be playing football in February. 

Panthers-Saints under-37.5. Nothing about this game is appealing.

Colts over Bengals. Indy goes into Cincy having won four straight. I have a hard time seeing Jake Browning replicating his performance from Monday night.

Jaguars over Browns, Falcons over Buccaneers. Old enough to remember when Cleveland-Jacksonville was Deshaun Watson vs Trevor Lawrence. The critically acclaimed Browns defense has given up 125.4 rushing yards per game their last nine times out. Falcons have allowed just 23 points over their last two games – also, only the Ravens and 49ers have given up fewer touchdowns than Atlanta this season.

Lions and Texans cover on the road. Two playoff teams against two bottom-feeders. Don’t overthink it.

49ers cover against Seahawks. Niners have won their nine games by an average of 15.8 points. They’ll cover the 10.5 point spread at home against Seattle.

Raiders over Vikings at home. Does anyone else sense the Vikings have played their best football? Give me the Raiders as home dogs.

Broncos beat Chargers on the road. Denver made the road to ending its eight-year playoff drought tougher, but far from insurmountable, with last week’s loss to the Texans. A loss to the Bolts would put the 6-6 Broncos in a vulnerable position with the Lions looming next week.

Last team to get the ball wins game of the week: Bills vs Chiefs. And I’ll give the edge to Patrick Mahomes with the game at Arrowhead. With that said, the Bills need this one like you wouldn’t believe.

Eagles over Cowboys. Jalen Hurts hasn’t lost back-to-back starts since October 2021.

Dolphins cover -13.5 against Titans, Packers-Giants goes under-36.5. Dolphins have covered four of the five games this season in which they’ve been favored by more than one possession. In the case of Packers-Giants, the under has hit in 13 of 15 Monday night games this season. Even if the Packers offense continues to roll, the Giants offense should help that under cash.